Microsoft Bing Predicted Oscar Results with Surprising Accuracy

[[Coi] Mr.CLuBBeR]

Just adding to its resume

It's becoming increasingly difficult not to be impressed (or downright spooked) with the prediction engine behind Microsoft's Bing browser. For its latest feat, Bing successfully predicted most of the top winners for the 2015 Oscars, correctly identifying 20 of the 24 results for an 84 percent success rate. That alone is impressive, though it's just another notch in Bing's belt when it comes to predicting outcomes.
Tapping into Bing's predictions engine, Cortana impressed during the World Cup last year by correctly picking 15 out of 16 knockout matches, including Germany's win over Argentina in the final. It's only trip up was selecting Brazil to beat the Netherlands in a rather meaningless third-place match.
David Rothschild, an economist in Microsoft Research's New York City lab, developed the prediction model that seems to work so well. It certainly did at the 2015 Oscars, correctly predicting the winner for Best Picture (Birdman). The categories it missed include:

• Original Screenplay: Picked The Grand Budapest Hotel instead of Birdman
• Animated Feature: Picked Dragon 2 instead of Big Hero 6
• Original Score: Picked The Theory of Everything instead of The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Film Editing: Picked Boyhood instead of Whiplash

This isn't the first time the prediction engine has done well at the Oscars. Last year it correctly picked 21 out 24 Oscar winners, and in 2013, it identified 19 of 24 winners.
How is it possible? One thing Rothschild takes into account is public opinion, which he assumes will put pressure on voters. However, he says public opinion is only loosely related to the winners because of the sentimentality involved.
"Prediction markets follow a select group of people who have high levels of information on what voters will do and are willing to wager real-money on the outcomes," Rothschild says. "And, prediction market-based forecasts have been incredibly accurate."
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