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Independents Still Seek Their 2012 Anointed One Albert R. Hunt

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  • Independents Still Seek Their 2012 Anointed One Albert R. Hunt

    To contact the writer of this column:
    Albert Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg,doudoune moncler pas cher.net
    Those patterns still emerge in the Bloomberg poll, with
    subtle, potentially important changes on both ends,doudoune moncler pas cher. Those
    younger Americans favor the president over Romney, 55 percent to
    37 percent, and give him a slightly larger lead over Perry. That
    means he’s running behind his last performance,moncler.
    Age is a leading indicator in U.S. elections. Three years
    ago, candidate Obama won almost two-thirds of the vote of
    Americans under 35; his Republican rival, Senator John McCain of
    Arizona, held about a 5-point margin with voters older than 55.
    Self-styled independents, almost by definition, are the
    most interesting demographic to watch. In 2008,doudoune moncler, they gave Obama
    an 8-point advantage, most of his margin of victory.
    For example, 55 percent of Americans under 35 -- who tend
    to be Democrats -- agree with Perry’s description of Social
    Security as a “Ponzi scheme;” only 34 percent of those 55 and
    older agree.
    The same role reversal is apparent when it comes to Ryan’s
    Medicare proposal,moncler. Younger respondents are evenly divided;
    senior citizens and those approaching that age category, who
    would be exempt from the change under the proposal, oppose it by
    3 to 1.
    In the Bloomberg National Poll conducted this month, the
    incumbent president leads by 6 points among independents in a
    matchup against Texas Governor Rick Perry; Obama runs even among
    this group in a head-to-head race with former Massachusetts
    Governor Mitt Romney. Even more troubling to the White House:
    Independents give the president bad marks on handling the
    economy, creating jobs and reducing the deficit.
    By better than 2-to-1 they blame congressional Republicans
    more than Obama for the dysfunction in Washington.
    Social Issues
    Women’s Optimism
    Interestingly, Catholics, who make up about one-quarter of
    the American electorate, have become more anti-Obama judging by
    this survey and are more receptive to Republicans. Overall 46
    percent of Catholic respondents have a favorable view of the
    Republican Party, while only about one-third of non-Catholics
    feel that way.
    (Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at
    Bloomberg News,doudoune moncler. The opinions expressed are his own.)
    Age Difference
    Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor of Bloomberg News, directing coverage of the Washington bureau, which includes more than 250 reporters and editors. He hosts the weekly television show "Political Capital with Al Hunt" and writes a weekly column for Bloomberg and the International Herald Tribune,doudoune moncler.
    If there is an early message from such soundings it is this:
    America has an agitated and volatile electorate, so beware
    conventional wisdom and expect surprises.
    Yet independents aren’t flocking to Republicans, either. By
    57 percent to 32 percent they express unfavorable views about
    the party in general. The hard-line positions taken by
    Republican candidates on questions such as global warming or
    social issues make independents less likely to vote for them
    next year, the poll shows.
    Among the older set -- 55 and over -- Romney beats Obama by
    4 points while Perry runs slightly behind. This is relatively
    good news for the president,doudoune moncler.
    ‘Ponzi Scheme’
    The president needs to turn around some of these numbers to
    be re-elected.
    Sun Sep 25 15:01:08 GMT 2011 About Albert R Hunt
    Some of this, to be sure, reflects perceived self-interest.
    A majority of older citizens, many of whom no longer pay payroll
    taxes, like the notion of raising the amount of salary subject
    to Social Security taxes; younger Americans, subject to these
    taxes, are split on that issue.
    The centerpiece of the Republican agenda on both the
    congressional and presidential level is a vow not to use tax
    increases to curb deficit spending,moncler. That doesn’t sit well with
    independents,doudoune moncler; 56 percent favor increasing taxes on households
    making more than $250,000 a year, and a plurality says deficit
    reduction should focus more on tax increases than reductions in
    entitlement spending.
    Part of this reflects the cross-currents in the debate over
    curbing entitlements, Social Security and Medicare,doudoune moncler pas cher. The
    Republicans are stronger advocates of cuts,doudoune moncler, Democrats more
    likely to be resistant, though that often cuts against the grain
    of their chief age group supporters.
    As the national election goes into high gear with more than
    13 months to go,moncler, the focus often is on polls showing the horse
    race among candidates. More instructive at this stage is how
    various segments of the American population, differentiated by
    age, gender, or other elements, are evolving.
    Political independents, who account
    for more than one-quarter of the U.S. electorate and are
    probably the key to the 2012 presidential election, are voicing
    strong reservations about Barack Obama as well as the Republican
    brand,doudoune moncler pas cher.
    The long-existing gender gap persists, with women decidedly
    more Democratic and men heavily Republican,doudoune moncler. A look at the
    political attitudes of moms and dads suggests some tense dinner-
    table conversations.
    In the Republican field,moncler, Catholics give higher marks to
    Romney,www.doudounemoncler-frances.info, a Mormon,moncler, than to Perry, the Protestant. There are other
    elements in these cross-tabulations that suggest a less
    predictable than usual election in 2012: The president runs
    ahead of Romney among Hispanics,doudoune moncler, though he falls short of the 67
    percent to 31 percent margin he enjoyed in the last election.
    And the anti-government Tea Party, which played such a large
    role in the congressional elections a year ago, gets across-the-
    board negative marks, except from Republicans.
    And independents give a resounding thumbs-down to the
    proposal by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan to replace
    Medicare with a system in which people would receive assistance
    to buy private health insurance.
    More than three-quarters of political independents say the
    nation is moving in the wrong direction and an even larger share
    believe the U.S,moncler. is still in a recession or about to fall into
    one. By almost 2-to-1, they say they’re worse off than when
    Obama took office. And by a 3-to-2 margin, they don’t believe
    the jobs package he announced this month will lower unemployment.
    Mothers clearly prefer Obama to any of his Republican
    opponents, give him reasonably high marks and say they are
    optimistic about things working out. A large majority of dads
    say they’ll definitely vote for anyone other than Obama next
    year and are more pessimistic about the economy and the country,
    with more than half saying they’ve given up hope.
    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Max Berley at mberley@bloomberg.net.
    More about Albert R Hunt
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